Ministry risks can be evaluated in the same way that other risk scenarios can be… likelihood multiplied by negative consequences.
If you’re renting some location for church, how much of a risk are you running?
First, consider the likelihood of the owners ending your contract in the next 12 months… if its a good relationship, it might be 10% chance. If it’s a bit shaky, it might be 30% or 40%.
Second, consider the consequences of being kicked out… financial costs, moving, goodwill, are there even any possible alternatives? You should also consider the positive outcomes; a new momentum for the church? It might get those fringe people more involved? It might end some traditionalism that’s crept into your culture.
Basically, if you’ve got a high-probability and grave negative consequences, you’re in a bad risk position. You need to act now.
We looked at this, and even tough the likelihood of being kick-out was pretty low, the consequences were terrible – there’s nowhere else for us to meet in the surrounding 10kms!! So we’ve already setup a fund for buying a building. We don’t need it – yet – but the risk analysis made it a wise move.