Ministry Risk = Likelihood x Consequences

Ministry risks can be evaluated in the same way that other risk scenarios can be… likelihood multiplied by negative consequences.

If you’re renting some location for church, how much of a risk are you running?

First, consider the likelihood of the owners ending your contract in the next 12 months… if its a good relationship, it might be 10% chance. If it’s a bit shaky, it might be 30% or 40%.

Second, consider the consequences of being kicked out… financial costs, moving, goodwill, are there even any possible alternatives? You should also consider the positive outcomes; a new momentum for the church? It might get those fringe people more involved? It might end some traditionalism that’s crept into your culture.

Basically, if you’ve got a high-probability and grave negative consequences, you’re in a bad risk position. You need to act now.

We looked at this, and even tough the likelihood of being kick-out was pretty low, the consequences were terrible – there’s nowhere else for us to meet in the surrounding 10kms!! So we’ve already setup a fund for buying a building. We don’t need it – yet – but the risk analysis made it a wise move.